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As we settle into a new year, I always like to pause and look ahead—not with a crystal ball, but with solid data and realistic expectations. Windermere’s Principal Economist, Jeff Tucker, recently released his 2026 real estate forecast, and while it may not scream headline-grabbing drama, that’s actually good news. A calmer, more balanced market is often where smart decisions are made.
Here’s a breakdown of what he’s seeing—and what it could mean for you.
A Modest Pickup in Home Sales
Home sales have been down for the past few years. The forecast for 2026? A small but noticeable increase in sales activity. Inventory is higher than it’s been since before the pandemic, and mortgage rates are lower than their recent peaks. That combination should help bring more buyers and sellers off the sidelines—just not in a sudden rush.
Think steady improvement, not a sprint.
Home Prices Likely Hold Steady
Rather than rising or falling dramatically, home prices are expected to stay mostly flat in 2026. More homes on the market will give buyers options and negotiating power, while sellers are still being thoughtful about when—and if—they list. Many homeowners are choosing to wait instead of selling at a price that doesn’t feel right, which has helped prevent prices from sliding.
For both buyers and sellers, this points to a more balanced market where pricing matters and strategy counts.
Inventory Is Coming Back
One of the biggest shifts expected in 2026 is inventory returning to more normal, pre-pandemic levels. There’s a group of “discretionary sellers” who don’t have to sell, but will list if conditions feel right. As those homes gradually come to market, buyers will have more choices and less pressure to rush.
That also means homes may sit a little longer—and sellers who price well and prepare properly will stand out.
Homeownership Gets a Little Harder
With prices and rates still elevated compared to pre-2020 norms, homeownership remains challenging for many buyers. Some renters are choosing to stay put longer, while others are renting single-family homes to get the lifestyle without the mortgage. As a result, the overall homeownership rate is expected to dip slightly.
This makes planning and preparation even more important for buyers who want to be ready when the right opportunity shows up.
Mortgage Rates: Slightly Lower, Not Dramatically
Mortgage rates are expected to hover just above—or occasionally dip below—6% in 2026. That’s an improvement from recent years, but not a return to ultra-low rates. The big takeaway here is stability. While rates will move around, large drops are unlikely, and much of the improvement is already built into today’s market.
No Recession Expected
Despite economic uncertainty over the past few years, the forecast suggests we’ll avoid a recession in 2026. Employment remains relatively stable, and the broader economy has shown resilience. That kind of backdrop tends to support steady—not frantic—real estate activity.
The Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up to be a year of balance. More inventory, steadier prices, slightly lower rates, and fewer extremes. For buyers, that can mean more options and less pressure. For sellers, it means preparation and pricing matter more than ever.
If you’re thinking about making a move this year—or even just planning ahead—I’m always happy to talk through what this kind of market means for your specific situation. No pressure, just good information.
Here’s to a thoughtful, informed, and successful 2026.
